A climate change scenario is a projection of future climate conditions, including temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, and more. These projections are calculated by applying changes in radiative forcing, which result from artificial factors such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, and alternations in land use, to Earth system models.
The scenarios serve as preemptive information to access the future impact of climate change and minimize damage. Detailed climate change projections for each region on the Korean Peninsula provide crucial information for local governments to respond to climate change and establish adaptation measures.
The goal of climate change scenarios is not solely to predict the future but to analyze and understand uncertainty, enabling reliable decision-making by identifying a wide range of possibilities that may arise in the future.
SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) Scenario: For the IPCC 6th Assessment Report, SSP scenarios are divided into five categories, each dependent on future mitigation and adaptation efforts to climate change. These scenarios are based on anticipated socioeconomic changes and radiative forcing intensity in 2100 (the existing RCP concept). Considerations in these scenarios encompass demographics, economic development, welfare, ecosystem elements, resources, institutions, technological developments, social factors, and policies. The SSP global scenario (135 km) has been available through the Climate Information Portal since December 2019, East Asia (25 km) since December 2020, and the South Korea detailed scenario (1 km) has been accessible since December 2021.
| Type | Description | CO2 Concentration (2100) |
| SSP1-2.6 | A scenario that assumes the development of renewable energy technology minimizes the use of fossil fuels, leading to environmentally sustainable economic growth. | 432 ppm |
| SSP2-4.5 | A scenario where climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development are assumed to be at an intermediate level. | 567 ppm |
| SSP3-7.0 | A scenario where passive climate change mitigation policies and slow in technological development make the social structure vulnerable to impacts of climate change. | 834 ppm |
| SSP5-8.5 | A scenario that assumes high use of fossil fuels and indiscriminate development centered on cities, with a focus on rapid industrial technological advancements. | 1089 ppm |
RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) Scenario: In the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, greenhouse gas concentrations were determined based on the amount of radiation affected by human activities in the atmosphere. The term "representative" is employed to acknowledge that the same radiative forcing could correspond to multiple socio-economic scenarios. Additionally, the use of "pathways" emphasizes changes in greenhouse gas emissions scenarios over time.
| Type | Description | CO2 Concentration (2100) |
| RCP2.6 | Instantaneous greenhouse gas reduction | 421 ppm |
| RCP4.5 | Substantial achievement of greenhouse gas reduction policy | 538 ppm |
| RCP6.0 | Fair achievement of greenhouse gas reduction policy | 670 ppm |
| RCP8.5 | Greenhouse gas emission as current trend | 936 ppm |
SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios): A future emission scenario used in the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (2001). There are six scenarios, including A1B, A2, and B1, depending on the expected amount of carbon dioxide emissions.